DC’s WASHINGTON Compared to the last reading in June, the percentage of Americans who say they have thought “quite a lot” about this year’s congressional elections is 49%. Additionally, 44% of American people claim to have thought about the midterm elections “just a little,” compared to 2% who indicate that they have thought “some” about it.
Even though the June number was exceptionally high for that stage of the midterm election cycle, the lack of change from the prior elections is a deviation. Usually, as Election Day approaches, more consideration is devoted to the election.
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It is on par with the 48% average for this measure since 1994, even though the current proportion of Americans who say they are thinking a lot about the elections is five percentage points lower than the final pre-election reading in 2018 — a year when turnout was the highest in a midterm election in more than 100 years.
The most recent results are from a Gallup poll taken between October 3 and 20, which was done as early voting started in various states.
With Election Day right around the corner, I’m heading to Florida to get out the vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. RSVP today to join.https://t.co/pGAMrmca3g
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 31, 2022
According to Gallup data, voter turnout is significantly influenced by how much consideration is given to an election; in other words, when individuals say they are thinking more about an impending election, turnout is greater.
Republicans have, on average, thought more about elections since 1994 than Democrats have. However, Democrats were more likely than Republicans in the penultimate pre-election poll in 2018 to have given the election a lot of thought. The Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, but they were able to regain control of the House of Representatives.
This year, neither party has an advantage on this metric as 57% of both Democrats and Republicans say they have given the elections a lot of thought. Much fewer independents (37%) say the same, as is customary. The results for Republicans and independents, at 55% and 39%, respectively, are very near to the averages for both parties since 1994. However, the present Democratic reading is seven points higher than the historical norm.
Additionally, Americans are significantly less motivated to vote in this year’s elections than they were in 2018. The 46% of American adults who currently report being “more excited” about voting compared to prior elections represents an 18-point drop from the previous midterms. Right now, 42% describe themselves as “less enthusiastic.” The enthusiasm of today, though, is comparable to the average since 1994.
“As we saw in 2020, and will certainly see in 2022, Republicans’ attack on voting will not stop after Election Day,” Elias predicted this month. “They will use every tool available to contest elections and avoid concessions.”https://t.co/vzOCj9uaXN
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) November 1, 2022
Gallup hasn’t previously discovered a connection between the enthusiasm of Republicans and Democrats for each election and their turnout rates. Instead, the measure appears to reflect how Democrats and Republicans feel about their chances in the approaching election, as shown by the fact that the party with the most enthusiasm typically wins in the midterms.
When the most recent poll was taken in early to mid-October, Democrats and Republicans had a little lead in terms of enthusiasm, with eight points separating the two party groups. Overall, 49% of Republicans and 57% of Democrats say they are more excited to vote this year. Republicans (58%) were far more excited than Democrats (48%) in June, which represents a substantial shift.
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Both values are lower than they were in the final pre-election survey conducted in 2018, but Republicans’ enthusiasm has decreased by 23 points, compared to Democrats’ decline of 12 points.
In contrast, 35% of independents say they are more enthusiastic this year, which, despite being down 16 points from 2018, is virtually on par with the readings for the group from 1994 to 2014.
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