According to a recent UN report, the world is on track to emit enough carbon to exceed the 1.5°C global warming limit within the next ten years.
The UN’s climate change secretariat warned that the emission reductions outlined in the national climate plans that were submitted to the UN between now and 2030 are not nearly ambitious enough to keep global warming to 1.5°C.
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The average temperature of the earth would rise by 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if the current trend continues, far above the 2°C upper limit established by the Paris Agreement. Scientists have issued a warning that this degree of heat may result in tipping points that would cause uncontrollable climate change.
The impact of the climate plans presented through the UN process is evaluated in the most recent synthesis report from the UN. There has been some improvement since the research from the previous year, and worldwide emissions are now predicted to peak before the end of the decade.
However, the national plans are still far short of what is required to achieve the global objective. If the plans were perfectly implemented, emissions would decrease by 3.6% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, significantly below the 43% decrease required to attain the 1.5°C objective. The plans call for wealthy countries to assist poorer ones in funding climate action.
The 2022 @UNEP Emissions Gap Report launches today at 18:00 Bangkok time, watch the press conference with @andersen_inger @OvaisSarmad @AOlhoff & @WMO‘s Petteri Taalas: https://t.co/8PQAs49Cw5 pic.twitter.com/Psb0AqRY9H
— UN Environment Programme Asia Pacific (@UNEP_AsiaPac) October 27, 2022
By the end of this decade, current plans would have used up 87% of the carbon budget for 1.5°C, and by 2032, the budget will have been completely depleted.
According to the UN’s climate lead, Simon Stiell, “nations have achieved modest progress this year given the predicted decline in emissions by 2030. But the Paris Agreement’s climate goals and the science are both very clear. To put us on track for a 1.5°C world, we are still far from reducing emissions at the size and rate necessary.
At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK, last year, it became evident that current climate promises wouldn’t be sufficient to keep temperature below 1.5°C, therefore countries pledged to reconvene within a year with more aggressive plans to reduce emissions.
The #GlobalGoals are our blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable world.
— United Nations (@UN) October 26, 2022
But only 24 nations have presented updated plans since COP26, a number Stiell called “disappointing.” In order to prevent the terrible effects of runaway climate change, he stated, “Government policies and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the intensity of the risks we are confronting, and the length of time we have left.”
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At the COP27 climate summit, which will take place in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, the following month, states will once again be under pressure to increase their ambition for reducing carbon emissions and to offer more funding to assist vulnerable countries in fully implementing their climate plans.
According to a press statement from Egypt’s Foreign Minister and COP27 president-elect Sameh Shoukry, “raising ambition and urgent implementation are vital for addressing the climate catastrophe.” “COP27 will be a turning point in global climate action.”
Climate activists repeated the call for stricter emission control measures. It is crucial that countries dramatically raise the level of their 2030 climate commitments as soon as possible, according to a statement from Tom Evans of the climate research tank E3G.
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